Can Barack Obama win back the “Reagan Democrats?” Here in Texas that would have been a silly question prior to 2006, but in ‘08 it is becoming more serious.
Texas still cannot be considered a blue state, and will probably cast its Electoral votes for John McCain in November, but ‘06 saw the beginning of a movement to the left in a few down-ballot races. In Dallas County, of all places, Democrats made inroads in a number of local election and actually won a few.
Even in statewide contests Democrats gained, though it did not show in the results. Gov. Rick Perry was re-elected, but received only 39% of the vote in a four-way race where plurality was acceptable.
Back in Dallas, the offices of District Attorney and Sheriff, previously bastions for redneck white men, became occupied by Craig Watkins, an African-American, and Lupe Valdez, a Latino woman, both of whom began cleaning out some very dusty closets at the Court House, to the dismay of the old guard.
The questions in ’08 are, will this trend continue, and does Obama actually have a chance in George W. Bush’s back yard? The answers are probably and perhaps.
The same conditions that led to the sea change of ’06 remain at least as intense in ’08, and even if Bush were permitted to run again this year, winning his home state would not be as automatic as before. That is why McCain will be here campaigning this year, where normally he could save his money and time for other states. He will be here because he knows Obama will be here, using his impressive war chest to contest Texas’ electoral votes.
The reasons are familiar: Iraq and the economy.
Texans have sacrificed their young to Bush’s war on a larger scale than many states, simply because they have sent more of their loved ones to the war zone than many states. They hear the reports about the dead and maimed, and they hear about the deceptions used to place our people in jeopardy.
They also pay more for gasoline than before, hear about the oil companies’ obscene profits, see the value of their homes plunge in a market where many are losing those homes, and see friends and neighbors losing their jobs.
When asked the old Reagan chestnut if they are better off now than they were four or eight years ago, the answer is no longer positive.
The pundits find Texans hard to figure according to poll numbers; they will still claim to follow the Republican line for the pollsters, but might shift allegiances in the voting booth. They may still be guarded in exit polling, but the results speak for themselves. The ultimate red state is losing its scarlet hue.
The same contradictions can be heard from friends and neighbors. “I’m for McCain, because he’s one of us.” Or, “I’m for (Sen. John) Cornyn because he’s a real Texan, and he’ll keep those illegals where they belong.”
The last point offers a clue for continuing changes in the Texas electorate. The minority community is becoming the majority. Legal immigration from Mexico has continued at a consistent pace, so that it is a matter of time before Hispanics become the majority ethnic group in Texas.
Which way will they vote as they continue to become citizens? Up to now they have tended to favor Democrats, but they offer no guarantees. Either party takes them for granted at their own peril, and the Hispanics do not promise to vote as a bloc for anyone.
So the days of “God, gays and guns” may be numbered in Texas. The simplistic campaigns of yesterday will not work tomorrow and beyond. Votes won must be votes earned, and it will take more than throwing one’s ten-gallon hat in a ring and then tending to other constituencies. The times are changing.
-jcscrib
